Two markets can sound almost identical and still be asking different questions. Their written rules are what connect the headline to an eventual result.
The headline is the summary
Before interpreting a probability, identify the event definition, deadline, and named evidence source. Look for what happens if data is delayed or revised, or if an outcome falls outside the ordinary case.
As a hypothetical example, a contract about an election result being certified by a date asks a different question from one about a candidate winning the vote. A news organization calling the race may answer neither contract's full settlement criteria.
The event ending is not always settlement
Kalshi's market FAQ distinguishes market close time from determination time. It explains that settlement may wait for finalized information from an official source, and that a contract can specify a later determination window.
That makes “the event appears finished” and “the contract is settled” different observations. Reporting should say which has actually happened.
Read the platform's process
Polymarket states that its markets resolve according to predefined rules and describes a process for proposing and disputing outcomes. That process is part of understanding how a result becomes final on the platform.
Avoid assuming every platform or contract follows the same procedure. Link to the specific market rules and the relevant platform documentation, rather than generalizing from a similar-looking market.
For readers, the useful question is not simply “what happened?” It is “what evidence satisfies this contract's exact terms?”