Can you withdraw a Kalshi bonus? Credit, cash and holds explained
Understand why a Kalshi bonus balance may not be withdrawable: trading-credit conditions, Predictions versus perps, open positions and deposit holds.
Prediction Talks
EXPLORE THE TOPIC
Market mechanics
Prices, spreads, fees, settlement rules, and the details behind a market-implied probability.
8 stories to explore
Three new transparency tools—and the questions they don't settle.
Kalshi's October 6 announcement covers Brier scores, low-volume labels, and more prominent trade feeds for election markets.
Prediction Talks
A 70% chance is still a 30% chance of being wrong
How to read a market-implied probability without turning a favorite into a foregone conclusion.
Prediction Talks
Paper trade the process, not just the prediction.
Build a useful test plan for a prediction market bot: logged decisions, realistic fill assumptions, fees, and a clear separation from live trading.
Prediction Talks
Three costs hiding behind one prediction market price.
Separate explicit fees, the bid-ask spread, and slippage—and see why a bonus or a small apparent edge does not make them disappear.
Prediction Talks
The price is a headline. The order book is the detail.
How to read bids, asks, spreads, and available size in a prediction market before confusing a displayed price with an executable trade.
Prediction Talks
What are prediction markets, really?
A practical introduction to event contracts, market-implied probabilities, and what the numbers can tell you.
Prediction Talks
The fine print that decides the outcome
Why the market question, official source, and determination time matter as much as the headline.
Prediction Talks